Does that mean we can finally get super cheap high speed RAM? Or will we get another round of contradictory statements telling us why this or that memory (or NAND) maker had to raise prices 😑
There was only a short term spot price spike when the news was initially released that Japan would be reviewing shipments. The much larger contract market was not affected. All forecasts were still that supply would outstrip demand and the pressure would still be downward.
The initial news was also being misinterpreted. Japan was never banning shipments to SK. They were simply going to review all shipments to SK like they do elsewhere. Japan up to then had a specific agreement with SK to no need to go through the normal export steps.
Lastly the actual impact of those specific chemicals on the manufacturing process for DRAM and NAND was also over stated.
Long term I suspect this will work out even worse for Japan than Trump's on again off again death sentences against Chinese phone makers will for the US. In the short term having a sword of Damocles hanging over your rivals heads is useful leverage. Longer term, China already has national goals around high tech self-sufficiency; these threats are only going to encourage them to accelerate the process. And while South Korea's industrial giants may have been willing to outsource the production of nasty chemicals to someone else; existential threats to many-billions/year businesses seems likely to encourage them to start making them at home. In both cases whatever short term gains the threats may yield; longer term it's only going to reduce the amount of stuff the threateners sell to their rivals.
The damage has probably already been done, too. All it takes is a little bit of a scare for someone to recognize that there's a readily-available market for these chemicals in South Korea and step in to supply the market -- and likely cheaper than Japan can, since they can be delivered directly through domestic transport. I'm sure if someone with the requisite skills showed up, the big tech manufacturers would probably get them started with inter-business loans or direct investments.
Based on what i've read, damage is done for sure. White list removal has triggered nationwide movement to boycott and quite a few reps from Japanese companies operating in Korea have confirmed huge decline in sales. Also these major korean companies impacted by this have been pledged support ffrom the korean government (not sure to what extent)
One such consequence is that Samsung and other SK companies are already looking to buy or build manufacturing sites for hydrofluoric acid and other key basic chemicals in the US and other countries. I agree that Japan scored a big self-goal here: the reliability of Japan Inc. as supplier of essential components and materiels is now in question, and Samsung, LG and Hynix will make sure to find alternate sources to avoid being at the mercy of whatever the Japanese government thinks of next.
Thx Anton Shilov, I know not every one is interested these sort of topic, but it is great you cover the technical backend and more importantly the business side of technology. People often ignore the business side of things, when in reality it is the business side that dictate how technology will be used and sold.
Something seems fishy about this whole thing. Why is Japan the only places making these chemicals? Why is being highly toxic and hard to store a reason to keep limited supply..its prob more of limited storaged to charge more for it like lots of big players keep limited stock to jack prices up.
Its not like making chips is a niche market anymore. China has its own production facilities now that prob also need these chemicals.
Some of these chemicals are indeed difficult to produce in sufficient quantity, especially at the very high (consistent) purity required for semiconductor fabrication. Let's recall that just this year TSMC lost several weeks of production due to a contamination of one of the chemicals they use.
It's a bit like China and their metallurgy problem. They can't (or at least couldn't; maybe they've made progress) make metals that can withstand the very high temperatures caused when can engine is powering a plane at several times the speed of sound. They can turn out over metals just fine, but the very high-quality stuff, they struggle with.
@Anton: I believe what's missing from this notice is that the first export licenses granted were and are for vital chemicals for Samsung's new EUV fab. Preventing that fab from operating would have had major consequences for several key players, including some from Japan, Inc.
It looks like the Japanese authorities are starting to sweat a bit (and not because of this dreadful summer). I reckon it's finally hit them that the South Korean companies will do almost anything to secure a supply of the chemicals. So there's the threat that the demand eventually moves away from Japan in the long term and potentially more concerning to them; set up their own production. In the short term, they also probably have Japanese companies telling them that they have products that they need to move as soon as possible or they will be lost,
Of course, they won't admit to any of that. No government would, but especially a Japanese one.
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R0H1T - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
Does that mean we can finally get super cheap high speed RAM? Or will we get another round of contradictory statements telling us why this or that memory (or NAND) maker had to raise prices 😑limitedaccess - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
There was only a short term spot price spike when the news was initially released that Japan would be reviewing shipments. The much larger contract market was not affected. All forecasts were still that supply would outstrip demand and the pressure would still be downward.The initial news was also being misinterpreted. Japan was never banning shipments to SK. They were simply going to review all shipments to SK like they do elsewhere. Japan up to then had a specific agreement with SK to no need to go through the normal export steps.
Lastly the actual impact of those specific chemicals on the manufacturing process for DRAM and NAND was also over stated.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4275074-sorry-jap...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4281927-korea-h-w...
If you mean Samsung B-Dies when saying high speed ram the issue there is that it's EOL.
The power loss to Toshiba/WD had a larger impact on NAND prices, albeit only slowing the fall in the short term.
Upcoming trade tariffs will have a larger impact on pricing in the US (and by extension Canada) than the above.
grant3 - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
Memory prices have been on a downward trajectory for months and yet someone always has to scream conspiracy theory claiming the opposite is happeningUltraWide - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
"...companies like LG, Samsung, and SK Hynix have build their manufacturing lines around."Correct tense is built not build.
DanNeely - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
Long term I suspect this will work out even worse for Japan than Trump's on again off again death sentences against Chinese phone makers will for the US. In the short term having a sword of Damocles hanging over your rivals heads is useful leverage. Longer term, China already has national goals around high tech self-sufficiency; these threats are only going to encourage them to accelerate the process. And while South Korea's industrial giants may have been willing to outsource the production of nasty chemicals to someone else; existential threats to many-billions/year businesses seems likely to encourage them to start making them at home. In both cases whatever short term gains the threats may yield; longer term it's only going to reduce the amount of stuff the threateners sell to their rivals.bloodgain - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
The damage has probably already been done, too. All it takes is a little bit of a scare for someone to recognize that there's a readily-available market for these chemicals in South Korea and step in to supply the market -- and likely cheaper than Japan can, since they can be delivered directly through domestic transport. I'm sure if someone with the requisite skills showed up, the big tech manufacturers would probably get them started with inter-business loans or direct investments.ph00ny - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
Based on what i've read, damage is done for sure. White list removal has triggered nationwide movement to boycott and quite a few reps from Japanese companies operating in Korea have confirmed huge decline in sales. Also these major korean companies impacted by this have been pledged support ffrom the korean government (not sure to what extent)eastcoast_pete - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
One such consequence is that Samsung and other SK companies are already looking to buy or build manufacturing sites for hydrofluoric acid and other key basic chemicals in the US and other countries. I agree that Japan scored a big self-goal here: the reliability of Japan Inc. as supplier of essential components and materiels is now in question, and Samsung, LG and Hynix will make sure to find alternate sources to avoid being at the mercy of whatever the Japanese government thinks of next.ksec - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
Thx Anton Shilov, I know not every one is interested these sort of topic, but it is great you cover the technical backend and more importantly the business side of technology. People often ignore the business side of things, when in reality it is the business side that dictate how technology will be used and sold.ZolaIII - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
After 6% decline in a industrial production its a no wonder they decided to open.imaheadcase - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
Something seems fishy about this whole thing. Why is Japan the only places making these chemicals? Why is being highly toxic and hard to store a reason to keep limited supply..its prob more of limited storaged to charge more for it like lots of big players keep limited stock to jack prices up.Its not like making chips is a niche market anymore. China has its own production facilities now that prob also need these chemicals.
eastcoast_pete - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
Some of these chemicals are indeed difficult to produce in sufficient quantity, especially at the very high (consistent) purity required for semiconductor fabrication. Let's recall that just this year TSMC lost several weeks of production due to a contamination of one of the chemicals they use.Tams80 - Saturday, August 10, 2019 - link
It's a bit like China and their metallurgy problem. They can't (or at least couldn't; maybe they've made progress) make metals that can withstand the very high temperatures caused when can engine is powering a plane at several times the speed of sound. They can turn out over metals just fine, but the very high-quality stuff, they struggle with.UltraWide - Sunday, August 11, 2019 - link
Yes, this is very accurate. The purity is the issue, not so much the quantity.eastcoast_pete - Friday, August 9, 2019 - link
@Anton: I believe what's missing from this notice is that the first export licenses granted were and are for vital chemicals for Samsung's new EUV fab. Preventing that fab from operating would have had major consequences for several key players, including some from Japan, Inc.Tams80 - Saturday, August 10, 2019 - link
It looks like the Japanese authorities are starting to sweat a bit (and not because of this dreadful summer).I reckon it's finally hit them that the South Korean companies will do almost anything to secure a supply of the chemicals. So there's the threat that the demand eventually moves away from Japan in the long term and potentially more concerning to them; set up their own production.
In the short term, they also probably have Japanese companies telling them that they have products that they need to move as soon as possible or they will be lost,
Of course, they won't admit to any of that. No government would, but especially a Japanese one.